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climate change Physics Science worldview

AI used to predict the next sunspot cycles: low solar activity until 2050

The Sun painted by a machine-learning algorithm in the style of Van Gogh’s Starry Night

Four years ago I did an analysis based on the work of other as well as my own fit to sunspot counts over the past four hundred years. That resulted in an estimate of an extremely cold period for the earth by the year 2030 resulting from the development of a Grand Solar Minimum in sunspot number.

The Sun has just come out of sunspot cycle 24 and is now headed into cycle 25. The earth global temperatures all depend on how strong that next cycle is. NASA has predicted a very weak cycle with a total of less than 50 sunspots.

As I mentioned in a recent post the earth’s global temperatures are headed down. Around the world we are getting reports of unusually cold periods for this time of year. Western Australia just experienced the coldest week on record for May in the past 60 years. We can expect the downward trend to accelerate over the coming months and years as the Sun continues its relative shutdown.

Categories
astronomy climate change Physics

Solar sunspot cycle 24 just ended

The 11-year sunspot cycle number 24 has just ended. We are entering sunspot cycle 25. The number of sunspots has been decreasing over the past 3 cycles which has been about 4 decades. See plot below.

Note cycles 20 to 22, with an increase in peak sunspot number, is the same period that global warming has been claimed to be most significant . Then from cycle 22 to cycle 24 we see a decrease, but also there have been reports of global cooling, most significantly in the last decade or so.

Here I have labelled the peaks with number assigned to each sunspot cycle. On the left vertical axis is the 13-month smoothed number of sunspots. This is equivalent to yearly average. Colours indicate the fact that north and south hemisphere exhibit different numbers of sunspots. Data are available here.