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AI used to predict the next sunspot cycles: low solar activity until 2050

Four years ago I did an analysis based on the work of other as well as my own fit to sunspot counts over the past four hundred years. That resulted in an estimate of an extremely cold period for the earth by the year 2030 resulting from the development of a Grand Solar Minimum in sunspot number.

The Sun has just come out of sunspot cycle 24 and is now headed into cycle 25. The earth global temperatures all depend on how strong that next cycle is. NASA has predicted a very weak cycle with a total of less than 50 sunspots.

As I mentioned in a recent post the earth’s global temperatures are headed down. Around the world we are getting reports of unusually cold periods for this time of year. Western Australia just experienced the coldest week on record for May in the past 60 years. We can expect the downward trend to accelerate over the coming months and years as the Sun continues its relative shutdown.

The Solar Cycle we’re entering now (number 25) is forecast to be very similar to the historically weak cycle just past (number 24), but it is expected to be just a stop-over on the sun’s descent into its next full-blown Grand Solar Minimum.

By many accounts, there will not be much of a Solar Cycle 26 to speak of. That will mean extremely cold weather globally for the next few decades, a mini ice age.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunctionhistorically low solar activitycloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.

Excerpted from Electroverse

SCIENTIST USE AI TO PREDICT SUNSPOT CYCLES: For the first time, scientists have used artificial intelligence not only to predict sunspots but also to correct the incomplete record of past sunspot activity.

new paper just published in Advances in Space Research by Dr Victor Velasco Herrera, a theoretical physicist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, Dr Willie Soon, an award-winning solar astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and Professor David Legates, a climatologist at the University of Delaware and former director of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, predicts that the new 11-year solar cycle that has recently begun will show near-record low sunspot activity that will last until mid-century.

Sunspots matter

When there are many sunspots and the Sun is active, there is a danger that a strong solar ejection directed towards the Earth could damage or even destroy the thousands of satellites on which the world depends for everything from radio, telephone, television and internet communications to monitoring the climate and observing the farthest reaches of the universe.

Worse, a really strong solar storm could damage the largely unshielded terrestrial electricity grid. Most power lines and transformers are above ground and thus acutely vulnerable. Solar panels, too, could have their lives shortened by intense solar radiation.

The three scientists taught a machine-learning algorithm how to recognize underlying patterns and cycles in the past 320 years’ sunspot record. The algorithm then discovered a hitherto-unnoticed interaction between the 5.5-year solar half-cycles (blue) and the 120-year Gleissberg double cycles (red dotted lines) which allowed it to confirm the earlier predictions of a quiet half-century to come – predictions which are now shared by solar physicists. See graph below.

Periods of minimum and maximum solar activity from 1700 to 2020 analyzed by machine learning

That interaction between the two periodicities led the algorithm to indicate that from the 1730s to the 1760s, early in the modern sunspot record (the gray band below), sunspots appear to have been under-recorded: as the 120-year cycle approached its maximum amplitude, sunspots should have been more numerous than reported at the time.

The algorithm then predicted the sunspots from 2021 to 2100. It suggests that the current low solar activity is likely to continue until 2050:

The Sun may be quiet for half a century

Dr Velasco Herrera said:

“Not everyone agrees with our expectation that solar activity will continue to be low for another three solar cycles. A paper in Solar Physics by Dr Scott McIntosh of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, says the coming solar cycle will be unusually active, with a peak sunspot number of 233, compared with our estimate of less than 100. Place your bets in the Battle of the Solar Cycles!”

Dr Soon said,

“The machine-learning algorithm, with its interesting interplay between the very short 5.5-year cycle and the long 120-year cycle, confirms our results of 10-15 years ago suggesting that the next three or four solar cycles will be comparatively inactive. This is the first time that the twin problems of hindcasting incomplete past records and forecasting the future have been combined in a single analysis.”

Dr Legates said:

“President Trump realized the importance of space weather, and particularly of the Sun, in influencing global climate. It was he who signed the October 2020 ProSwift Act into law to assist in studying and forecasting space weather. Given the history of previous periods of comparative solar activity, the weather may get a little cooler between now and 2050. If we are right, our electricity grids and our satellites should be safe until then.”

You can download the new paper here.

Reposted from Electroverse

Over the next 30 years we can expect global cooling like not seen since the famous little ice age period called the Maunder Minimum of 1645 to 1715. The Thames river in the UK froze over during the winter, Viking settlers abandoned Greenland, and Norwegian farmers demanded that the Danish king recompense them for lands occupied by advancing glaciers.

The idea of reducing carbon dioxide emissions is so ludicrous considering the need for more crops in the face of rapid cooling which adversely affect agriculture production. More cold fired generation is needed not less. Solar power will be less productive as the Sun’s power diminishes. And probably the wind turbines will freeze solid as was seen in the cold snap Texas experienced a few months back.

Please prepare accordingly: stock up, grow food and resist tyranny.

Join me on @GideonHartnett 

By John Gideon Hartnett

Dr John G. Hartnett is an Australian physicist and cosmologist, and a Christian with a biblical creationist worldview. He received a B.Sc. (Hons) and Ph.D. (with distinction) in Physics from The University of Western Australia, W.A., Australia. He was an Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Outstanding Researcher Award (DORA) fellow at the University of Adelaide, with rank of Associate Professor. Now he is retired. He has published more than 200 papers in scientific journals, book chapters and conference proceedings.

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