If the price of silver increased again just like it did in the late 1970s it certainly could be classed as a ‘moon shot’ in the coming crack-up boom. To see what this might look like I have modelled it based on the historical data.
Starting about 1976 the price of silver experienced a massive price rise from $4/oz in 1976 to $35.5/oz in 1980, a 9x increase. That happened only a few years after the gold window was closed. What if a similar situation occurred again, soon?
I previously did an analysis based on the speculation that the price of gold would follow a similar trend to its historical price in the period 1977-1980. That was based on the view Rafi Farber presented. Read The Coming Crack-Up Boom for details of my methodology.
In the following I use the same approach for the silver price and fit an exponential curve to the silver price in the years 1977 to 1980 to get a speculative prediction for the coming years. See Chart 1 below.
I start from the silver price in normalised 1959 dollars as shown in Chart 1. This means the effects of dollar devaluation (price inflation) has been stripped out, so that we are comparing ‘apples with apples’. The silver price is almost tracking horizontally if you ignore the big break outs in the red data (before 2020) but then dips below the $0.90 line from 1959. After 2020 the price is essentially constant around $0.50 in 1959 dollar terms (blue data).
The gold price headed into an apex sometime in March 2026 from which I speculate it must break out from, but what happens to silver at that same time?
To model this I fitted an exponential curve to the data in the period 1977-1980 and translated it to fit a point in August 2026 where it breaks above the $0.90 line in Chart 1. This matches the blue silver price data quite well. That is shown as the purple curve (4). But these values are still all in 1959 dollars. To get the current silver price in deflating current dollars I needed to multiply the 1959 dollar price of silver by the exponential growth curve for dollar devaluation following its extension after 2024. The assumption here is that the Fed pivots sometime this year (2024) and cranks up the printing presses again. That means further exponential growth of the M2 money stock. The result is shown in Chart 2 below.
From 1976 silver saw a 9 times increase in price from $4/oz to $35.5/oz, which represents a nearly order of magnitude increase. I have assumed that a similar increase could occur in my crack-up-boom speculation here. This is shown as the price increase according to the purple curve labelled ‘Prediction” in Chart 2. The arrow is pointing to $225 mark in August 2027, which is the 9x increase from the current $25/oz, over just 3½ years. If this happens and it continues to March 2028 it would reach $1000 per ounce; just saying.
I don’t know when the crack-up boom will occur but it will eventually happen. It has to because the dollar is dying. Prepare accordingly.
Recommended Reading
- Book: Apocalypse Now: On the Revelation of Jesus Christ
- Book: Merchants of Death: Global Oligarchs and Their War On Humanity
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