Previously I published a chart of the gold-to-silver price ratio where I found the rate of change in that dimensionless parameter spiked up in November 2024, which I called the Trump Effect because it occurred after his November 5 election win. See Is the Gold-to-Silver Ratio Predicting Another Great Depression?
However due to limited data at that time I was not sure if what I saw was an edge effect, an artifact of the data sampling. Here I have updated that gold-to-silver price ratio and add some additional analysis.
Chart 1 shows the gold-to-silver price ratio from 1960 to 28 January 2025 derived from US prices. After August 1971 the ‘gold window’ was closed and the prices of gold freely fluctuated in the market as compared with the period before 1971 when the price of gold was controlled.
Fluctuations in the Au/Ag ratio correlate with recessions indicated by the sepia strips. The Au/Ag ratio rises rapidly into a recession.
To quantify how quickly the Au/Ag ratio changes I have taken the Derivative of that ratio as a function of time and show it on Chart 2. The Derivative then quantifies the rate of change or what I called the “velocity” of the Au/Ag ratio.
From September to the present I sampled the Au/Ag ratio weekly. That gives finer detail to the fluctuations in the ratio. With more data well after November 2024 it is apparent that the Trump Effect is still clearly there in the “velocity” data. It was not an artefact but is quite real.
Even though the Au/Ag ratio is dimensionless it is based on a changing dollar that has been devaluing over the sample period. So to improve the comparison of the ratio from one time to another we normalise the Au/Ag ratio “velocity” data by dividing it by the Au/Ag ratio. This then takes out any bias introduced by dollar devaluation over the time period shown. The result is shown in Chart 3 and in Chart 4 where I have zoomed into the last 2 years for more detail.
I have written the date on any peak where the “velocity” of the Au/Ag ratio was greater than the value the Trump Effect reached of 1 x10-7. You’ll notice that in each case the “velocity” spiked up a few years out from a major depression with the exception of 2011. There was one a few year before the GFC depression but its value didn’t reach 1 x10-7.
It is noteworthy that the 1980 Au/Ag ratio “velocity” peaked at more than twice the Trump Effect value. Perhaps the precious metals markets were more panicked then than they were at Trump’s election. Or perhaps it is due to the fact that price inflation hides the real effect which revealed here when the “velocity” data are normalised.
If this Au/Ag ratio “velocity” tells us anything it is that we are headed for a major depression within a few years. The effect Trump’s election had on the market is definitely real and clearly seen.
Based on this analysis and previous crashes in the Dow I think we are now very close to a significant Depression. But all other indications are that the dollar is dying and as such the gold-to-silver price ratio “velocity” data is a significant indicator.
Related Reading
- Is the Gold-to-Silver Ratio Predicting Another Great Depression?
- Update: Gold and Silver Prices Above Predictions
- The Trump Effect | Gold and Silver Price Predictions Updated
- Gold and Silver Real, Uninflated Prices Break Out | How High Will They Go?
- Stock Market Predictions for 2025: Is A Crash Inevitable?
- Next Global Financial Crisis in 2025?
- US National Debt Predicts the Next Big Financial Crisis
Free Subscribers
Subscribe to our Newsletters as a Free Subscriber and be notified by email. Just put your email address in the box at the bottom of your screen.
You’ll get an email each time we publish a new article. It is quick and easy to do and totally free. You only need do it once.
Premium Subscribers
Subscribe to our Newsletters as a Premium Subscribers at $5 USD/month or $30 USD/year (you choose).
Paid Premium Subscribers will get exclusive access to certain content I publish, which I expect to be about 4 exclusive posts per month. That will only cost you a cup of coffee per month.
Also you’ll get access to download, for free, a PDF of my book Apocalypse Now. You can download it from a Premium members only post here.
And now you’ll get exclusive access to the chapters (in their initial draft form) to my new book with working title “The Physics of Creation”; plus eventually a PDF of the final compiled book.
This is how you can support my work. I have been publishing this website for 10 years now and up to 2024 I never asked for any support.
Press the button “Premium” on the front page to find a list of Premium content. Over time that list will grow. Thanks so much to all supporters.
At a minimum, please join as a Free Subscriber. It’ll cost you nothing. It may also help me beat the shadow banning of some posts.
Bible Science Forum 
Leave a comment