Global cooling coming

You think this southern hemisphere winter is cold, according to Professor Valentina Zharkova,1 reported on Channel 9 News here in Australia, solar activity, such as sunspots, will drop up to 60 percent by 2030 and plunge the planet into a mini Ice Age.2,3 She makes the connection in her research between solar irradiance and the earth’s weather and sunspots are an indication of the cyclic activity of the sun.

Snow in Australia might become a more common sight with a mini-Ice Age coming in 15 years. Credit:

Snow in Australia might become a more common sight with a mini-Ice Age coming in 15 years.

In only 15 years time we should be in the middle of a mini-Ice Age. After this weekend in Adelaide, South Australia–located on the edge of the Antarctic Ocean–I am inclined to believe such a report. It has been cold!

This is the same prediction that John L. Casey made in his bookDark Winter, How the Sun Is Causing a 30-Year Cold Spell” where he predicted a period of extreme cold by the year 2030. In fact, he predicts it will last 30 years, a period similar to the “Dalton Minimum” around 1810 or even worse, the “Maunder minimum”, which lasted from 1645 to 1715.

Casey documents a theory that the Sun is absolutely the main driving force for Earth weather. Solar irradiance is the energy flux experienced at the Earth. It is solar irradiance that controls Earth weather and human kind cannot do anything about it. Because of the natural cyclic activity of the Sun the energy output will fall (is already falling) and as a result Earth will experience extreme cold weather. In addition he predicts increased earthquake activity due to a cooling of the planet and hence contraction of the crust.

See my analysis of the sunspot number correlated with two periods of cyclic activity besides the 11-year primary sunspot number.

Nevertheless, humans survived the “Maunder minimum”. We can do it again, assuming that we are still here, and any associated earthquake activity does not bring on cataclysmic events of biblical proportions. You know what I mean.


  1. Prof. Valentina Zharkova, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK.
  2. You think it’s cold now? Scientist claims ‘mini-Ice Age’ coming by 2030, Channel 9 News, July 12, 2015.
  3. Winter is coming: Earth awaits ‘mini ice age’ in 15 years, solar cycle study suggests,, July 12, 2015.
  4. J.L. Casey, Dark Winter, How the Sun Is Causing a 30-Year Cold Spell, Humanix Books, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 2014.

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4 thoughts on “Global cooling coming

    • Yes, I agree but my line of thinking is quite different to yours. The evidence of global warming in the last two decades of the 20th century is a demonstrable fact, based on the global temperature data, but also a period of two decades before that there was evidence of global cooling. See Fig. 2 in the related post “The coming long dark winter” In fact, I remember back in the 1960s there was talk of ‘global cooling’ and even the fear of the earth entering an ‘Ice Age’.

      Having said that, the more difficult correlation to demonstrate is the ‘man-made’ bit. Is anthropogenic forcing really significant? There was a big boost in made-made CO2 during the 1950s and 60s but the global temperature data showed a cooling trend during that period. And if what Prof. Zharkova and John L. Casey are both saying is true, then solar irradiance is the dominant factor anyway, so any anthropogenic contributions may, in fact, be irrelevant. Let’s see! We don’t need to wait more than another 5 years or so and we should know.


    • This seems to be another case where science is being manipulated for political ends. The temperature trend being 264% higher in ground based data compared to satellite based data is a strong indicator of what Casey is saying the Obama administration has done—manipulate the data to show a stronger trend than what is real. Global temperatures have not increased for the last 17 years and my analysis even indicates a slight downward trend now. And I used the UK HADCRUT data (Fig. 2 here), which Casey is arguing is suspect. But it seems it might be in the way they have combined those surface measurement data sets (NOAA, NASA and HADCRUT).


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